ING sees Romania’s GDP growth slowing down to 2.6% in Q4

Romania’s annual (year-on-year) GDP growth will gradually ease from 5% in Q1 to 2.6% in Q4, according to the latest forecast of ING Romania.

The bank’s analysts upgraded the overall estimates for the whole year on June 6, in response to the better than expected Q1 performance. ING revised the full-year forecast upward from 2.7% to 3.5%.

Under more detailed forecast issued at the end of last week, the bank sees the economic growth at 3.8% in the second quarter this year, to further ease to 3.3% in Q3 and 2.6% in Q4, Ziarul Financiar reported.

The risks are balanced as confidence data is showing signs of improvement abroad, though the domestic sentiment was rather weak in the first two months of the second quarter, according to the comment issued on June 6.

In a regional context, the growth in the second quarter of the year will be 3% in Bulgaria, 3% in Croatia, 4.8% in Hungary and 5% in Poland, according to ING estimates.

Romania’s Government projects 5.5% GDP growth this year, but no independent analyst sees the growth above 4%.

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