ING Romania affirms 0.3% GDP growth forecast for 2025, cuts down outlook for 2026

In its research note on Romania’s Q2 GDP data, ING Romania announced that it keeps its growth forecast at 0.3% for 2025 while revising it downwards to 1.4% from 1.7% for 2026.

Essentially, ING Romania sees private consumption cooling down but not witnessing a contraction. It expects a positive contribution to the overall growth coming from construction, driven by the EUR 15–17 billion of EU transfers (via the Recovery Plan and cohesion funds) that could be injected into the economy over the next year.

“This substantial inflow is expected to sustain activity in the construction sector and help prevent a deeper downturn,” the report reads.

Infrastructure projects and related spending are expected to also support industrial output, especially in sectors like construction materials and equipment.

In short, ING Romania expects EU-funded investment to carry the bulk of the growth burden in the coming quarters.

ING Romania also mentions the early signs of a better agricultural year. Following last year’s weak harvest, initial reports point to above-average crop yields in 2025.

While agriculture represents a small share of GDP, a stronger harvest should still provide a modest boost to headline growth and support food exports - a welcome development amid an otherwise subdued outlook, the bank’s analysts note.

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