ING improves its forecast for Romania’s GDP growth

ING Bank has significantly improved its forecast for the growth of the Romanian economy in 2020, from 2.7% to 3.6%, after the flash estimate for the last quarter of last year (Q4 2019) surpassed expectations.

The annual growth rate for Romania’s economy was estimated at 4.3% in Q4 and 4.1% for the whole year 2019, according to the preliminary data published by the statistics office INS last Friday, February 14.

The 4.3% growth in the last quarter of 2019 was significantly above the 2.7% estimate of ING Bank. “After all, last year was not that bad for the Romanian economy.

The twin deficits continued to deepen, as anticipated, but the economy grew to a greater extent than anticipated,” admitted Valentin Tătaru, economist ING Bank Romania.

ING has revised its forecast for 2020 in line with the latest official estimates.

The bank projected an economic advance of 3.6% this year, compared to an increase of only 2.7% previously envisaged.

Similarly, the European Commission has increased its estimation regarding the growth of the Romanian economy this year, to 3.8% (from 3.6% last fall), but it warned of the risks to the growth generated by the expansionary fiscal policies.

Separately, ING said that it expects Romania’s National Bank (BNR) to maintain the monetary policy rate at 2.5% throughout 2020.

The bank also expects a budget deficit of 3.7% of GDP this year, not far from the official target of 3.6% of GDP.

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