ING Bank Romania revises 2025 growth forecast for Romania to 0.8%

Following the publication of the detailed Q1 GDP figures (+0.3% y/y), ING Bank Romania revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania to 0.8% from 1.2% on June 6, reflecting weak momentum and growing downside risks. The bank maintains its 2026 estimate at 2.2%.

The publication of Romania's detailed GDP data for the first quarter of 2025 confirms a fragile growth structure, the bank's research report reads.

The economy was flat on a quarterly basis and expanded by only 0.3% compared to the first quarter of 2024. Private consumption remained the main growth engine alongside investments, but net exports have offset nearly all those gains.

On the supply side, industry was a major drag, while construction and net taxes offered some support. Services and agriculture were broadly neutral.

Looking ahead, the bank sees the outlook clouded by the upcoming fiscal consolidation package. New tax measures are likely to weigh on consumption and private investments.

At the same time, the liberalisation of electricity prices from July 2025 could trigger a sharp rise in energy costs. Early signals point to a solid double-digit price increase in electricity prices, which could push inflation towards the 6.0% area in the second half of 2025.

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