IMF halves Romania’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.7%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut Romania’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.7%, down from 1.4% projected earlier, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on April 14.

The revised estimate brings expected growth this year in line with 2025, when Romania’s economy also expanded by 0.7%, based on updated official data. The IMF sees a recovery in 2027, with growth projected at 2.5%.

The Fund also revised its inflation outlook upward, now expecting average inflation of 7.8% in 2026, compared to 6.7% in its previous forecast published in October.

Unemployment is seen rising slightly to 6% this year, from 5.8% previously estimated.

At the global level, the IMF expects economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, noting that the world economy is facing renewed pressure from geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

“The global economy has so far withstood a series of shocks, but a new test, this time a military conflict that has engulfed the Middle East since late February, is testing this resilience,” the IMF said.

The report warned that emerging and developing economies are particularly vulnerable, especially those reliant on raw material imports. Currency depreciation, combined with rising energy and food prices, could amplify economic pressures.

According to the IMF, the overall impact will depend largely on the duration and intensity of the conflict - factors that remain highly uncertain.

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