Hopes for lower inflation moderate in Romania despite expected lower print in April

The April headline inflation, to be published on May 14, was expected to decrease towards 6% y/y, but the hopes for entering the 2.5% +/-1pp were further delayed amid slightly higher inflationary pressures this year and an inflationary shock expected with the fiscal corrective package in 2025.

The central bank has a yearend target of 4.7% y/y but announced this would be revised slightly upwards, while independent analysts are far less optimistic: UniCredit, for instance, sees the yearend inflation at 5.4% y/y to rise at 6% one year later.

Inflation in April reportedly dropped to 5.8% y/y from 6.6% y/y in March. If confirmed by official data, this would be slightly less than analysts' expectations.

UniCredit, quoted by Profit.ro, estimates that inflation in Romania continued to decrease to 6.1% y/y in April amid a base effect in the prices of food. At the same time, the decrease in electricity and gas prices announced by the minister of energy is expected to be transferred to a certain extent in consumer prices, according to the bank's analysts.

BCR bank saw inflation falling to 6% y/y in April, driven down by the drop in the price of natural gas. Core inflation is expected to decline from 7.1% in March to 6.5% in April.

Both banks, however, noted that there is a potential for inflation to have fallen further last month.

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