Erste Group expects Romania’s Q2 GDP slowing down by 0.1% q/q
Romania’s Q2 GDP is expected to show a mild contraction of -0.1% q/q and -1.8% y/y in Q2, due to weak confidence and base effects, Erste Group says in a research note. Romania’s statistics office will announce flash Q2 GDP data on…
iulian ernst · Journalist
· Updated · 1 min read
Romania’s Q2 GDP is expected to show a mild contraction of -0.1% q/q and -1.8% y/y in Q2, due to weak confidence and base effects, Erste Group says in a research note. Romania’s statistics office will announce flash Q2 GDP data on Thursday, August 14.
The 1.8% y/y decline expected by Erste for the country’s economy in Q2 would be the first annual decline in several years.
By our calculation, a 0.1% q/q GDP decline in Q2 would still result in a 0.25% y/y advance for the seasonally and workday adjusted GDP.
Consequently, Erste’s expectations for a 1.8% y/y contraction refer to the unadjusted real GDP, which has not seen annual contraction rates since the coronavirus pandemic period.
Erste Group revised its 2025 forecast for Romania in June to +1.3% from 1.8% previously. But the analysts’ expectations have further depressed in the meantime.
ING projected recently only a 0.3% economic advance for this year in Romania.
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