Erste Group sees bullish Romania forecast at risk after disappointing January sentiment data

Austria’s Erste Group has maintained its forecast for Romania’s economic growth at 1.3% in 2025, a scenario considered highly likely and consistent with a mild technical recession episode in H2, followed by growth of around 2.1% in 2026. However, Erste’s analysts warned that downside risks are mounting, particularly if consumer sentiment fails to improve over the course of the year.

Consumer confidence in Romania fell sharply in January to -34.6, from -30.9 previously, reaching its lowest level since 2010–2011 and falling below the lows recorded during the pandemic.

According to Erste, sentiment deteriorated across all major components, including expectations regarding future personal finances, the broader economic outlook, major purchasing intentions, and assessments of past financial conditions.

“Consumers remain likely overly pessimistic due to the lingering effects of fiscal consolidation measures and persistently high inflation,” Erste analysts noted.

In the industrial sector, manufacturing confidence edged down slightly to -2.1 in January from -2.0 in December, mainly driven by lower expectations for production. Capacity utilisation in manufacturing increased marginally in Q1 2026 to 69.9%, from 68.5% previously, but remains well below its long-term historical average.

Services sentiment also weakened, slipping to -1.1 in January from -0.2 in December. Managers reported a poorer assessment of past business conditions, slightly weaker recent demand, and softer expectations for future demand.

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