Erste Group expects Romania’s central bank to keep rates unchanged for coming 12 months

Romania's central bank is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50% at its July 8 policy meeting, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously forecasting no change, according to an Erste Group note. The National Bank of Romania (BNR) will publish only its standard press statement after the meeting, making its assessment of macroeconomic developments and policy tone the main focus for investors.

Erste Group expects the BNR to keep the key rate unchanged until May 2027, arguing that a rate increase is unlikely in an economy operating below potential. While tighter liquidity management through deposit-taking operations could lift effective money market rates above the current 5.50% deposit facility rate, the bank does not see this as its base case, viewing such a move as more likely to reflect concerns over the leu than renewed inflationary pressures.