Erste to revise downward forecast for Romania's economy after statistics office explains Q2 GDP data

While economies like Poland and Croatia manage to maintain a robust growth rate, Romania is facing a performance well below the regional average. The Czech Republic and Slovenia are showing signs of stabilization, and Hungary, although it will stagnate in 2025, has prospects of recovery in 2026, according to an Erste report consulted by Cursdeguvernare.ro.

The Austrian bank's analysts warn that they will revise down Romania's growth forecast for 2025, currently 1.3% of GDP, after the publication of broken down data on the evolution of the economy, the signal data having huge discrepancies that make calculations impossible.

"Discrepancies between the unadjusted series (0.3% in H1 2025) and the adjusted series (1.4% in H1 2025) complicate the assessment of the magnitude of the downward revision at this time," the report reads.

For the whole of 2025, Erste currently estimates economic growth of 1.3%. A timid recovery could occur in 2026, with a forecast of 2.1%, but Romania remains far behind Poland, which is emerging as the best-performing economy in the region, with an advance of over 3%.

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