Erste sees growing optimism in Romania as 'political uncertainties subside'

Romania's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose to 103 in March 2025, up from 101.7 in February, continuing to recover from the below-average level registered in January, according to a research note published by Erste Group, which concludes that the data suggests "growing optimism" driven by subsiding political uncertainties and issues 2% projection for the year's economic growth.

This is still a premature or optimistic conclusion (including the GDP growth forecast), as long as the presidential elections in May and the further repositioning of parties in the ruling coalition may still deliver market-adverse outcomes.