Consensus forecast: 2% YoY GDP growth in Romania in Q1, but gloomy outlook for Q2

Romania's economy will rise by around 2% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period of 2021, but the outlook looks uncertain, according to a couple of independent economists consulted by Ziarul Financiar daily.

The 2% annual growth would be consistent with the 0.8%-0.9% quarterly increase in Q1, after the marginal (-0.1%) contraction in the last quarter of 2021.

The flash estimate for the economic development in the first quarter of the year will be issued on May 17. Until then, there is still a question mark regarding the developments in March - as the statistics office has not released the high-frequency series (such as industrial output, retail sales) for the third month of the year yet.

"At this moment, we see [positive] economic growth in Q1. The figures that have been published so far are relatively good. We expect a more significant deterioration in economic activity in Q2, where we see stagnation. The figures we have at the moment are good," commented Ionuţ Dumitru, the chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank and former chairman of the Fiscal Council.

Dragoş Cabat, an economic analyst, thinks that the economy will advance by 1.5-2.5% in the first quarter of 2021, but there is a slowdown in almost all economic sectors compared to the evolution in 2021.

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