EBRD cuts Romania's growth outlook to 0.9% in 2025 and 1.6% next year

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecast for Romania's economic growth in its September issue of the Regional Economic Prospects report, by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, to 0.9% this year and 1.6% in 2026.

Romania's government will base its revised 2025 budget planning on expectations of 0.6% economic growth and an equally cautious forecast for 1.2% growth next year.

Romania's economic growth significantly slowed down in 2024, to 0.8%, dragged down by industry, services, and construction, but above all by agriculture, which was heavily affected by drought.

During the first half of 2025, growth averaged 1.4% y/y, the EBRD says, amid slowing real wage growth (still +3.4% y/y in real terms), a deteriorating external balance (CA deficit widened by 26% y/y), and a contraction in industry (-2% y/y).

Growth is projected at 0.9% in 2025, picking up to 1.6% in 2026 on accelerating absorption of EU funds. Downside risks are linked to weaker exports and public investment cuts.

Economists contacted by Ziarul Financiar view the EBRD's forecast of 0.9% growth this year as "impossible." The daily itself estimates that 0.9% overall growth in 2025 would require 1.7% y/y growth in each Q3 and Q4 after 0.3% y/y growth in H1 (under one of the two methodologies used by INS, the other one being used by EBRD and Eurostat).

"I don't see where such an increase could come from. The forecast, from the data we have, is a 0.2% decline in the economy this year. A 0.2% decline is not a drama. But from minus 0.2% to an EBRD-forecasted growth of plus 0.9%, the distance is great," said economist Laurian Lungu.

Erste Group projects 1.3% GDP growth this year.

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