Confidex poll among Romanian managers shows the glass is nearly half full

The Confidex index "of [managers'] economic confidence" compiled by Impetum Group is at its highest level, and the authors of the study conclude that "Romanian managers are much more confident in the future, although the pressure of the new crises is felt by most of them."

76% of them believe that they will be greatly affected by the war in Ukraine, agriculture and industry are the sectors where the mood of managers has decreased, but the confidence index in the economy is higher than during the pandemic, according to the results study CONFIDEX S1 2022, published by Impetum Group.

We believe that although the poll reveals certain positive aspects, it fails to put managers' answers in an inflationary context, and the overall index tends to underestimate some key components, perhaps due to a weighting system that still needs fine-tuning.

The authors themselves admit the outcome is somewhat puzzling ("revealing in many ways," in their words). "On the one hand, we see that almost half of the managers consider that we are heading for a recession in the next 3 months, and on the other hand, we see that the confidence of managers in the economy is at the highest level since the launch of the Confidex study."

What can be certainly said is that managers' mood ("stare de spirit") indeed improved since H2 last year - but it lags behind the readings in the previous two polls (at 4.7 on a 0-10 scale) and remains in "the negative half" of the scale. As it features a lower degree of aggregation, the "managers' mood" remains a more relevant index to follow.

Agriculture and industry are the sectors where the mood has decreased this year, while the managers in the actors of services and constructions neared the 5-point benchmark (balanced mood).

It is important also to note that the Confidex index has been calculated so far only during harsh times - since the outbreak of the pandemic. This being said, it remains relevant and encouraging that the managers' sentiment is now more robust than it was in some of the past two years.

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