Cocereal projects 4.6% drop in Romania’s grain crop this year

Romania’s total grain production is expected to decline by 4.6% in 2026 to 23.7 million tonnes, according to projections by Cocereal, amid slightly reduced cultivated areas and weaker average yields, Economica.net reported. The overall cultivated area is seen decreasing by 1%, while lower productivity is set to weigh more significantly on output.

Wheat production is forecast at 11 million tonnes, down 17.5% from last year’s record of 13.4 million tonnes. The decline reflects both a 2% reduction in cultivated area and weaker yields, which are expected to remain below five tonnes per hectare. In contrast, durum wheat yields are projected to improve by 2.9%, keeping production broadly stable at around 37,000 tonnes.

Barley output is also expected to decrease despite increased farmer interest. Although the cultivated area expanded by 4.4%, total production is projected to fall by 5% to 3.2 million tonnes, compared to 3.4 million tonnes a year earlier, due to lower yields.

Corn is anticipated to be the main positive contributor to this year’s harvest. Cocereal estimates average yields of 4.5 tonnes per hectare, up 18.4% compared to 2025, which would lift production to over 8.7 million tonnes from 7.4 million tonnes last year, despite a 1% decline in cultivated area.

The mixed outlook reflects ongoing volatility in agricultural conditions, with yield variations continuing to play a decisive role in overall grain production.

(Photo source: Musuc Alexandr/Dreamstime.com)