Romanian bank analysts expect economic slowdown and VAT rate hike in 2025

Romanian analysts expect 1.5% economic growth this year and the same rate for 2025 when downside risks could bring the GDP growth rate towards 1.0%, according to representatives of the CFA Society Romania unveiling the results of the latest poll among its members, conducted at the end of September.

Some of the analysts expect an economic recession next year.

Regarding the fiscal correction package, a VAT rate hike is most likely since "consumption is the one that has supported the economy so far and is also considered the least harmful tax, in the sense that it affects less business, investments and more the consumption area," according to CFA Society Romania head Alexandra Smedoiu.

She said that the dividend taxation might be increased as well.

"We also believe that areas that have already been overtaxed will remain overtaxed: banks, oil and gas. [...] Also, the minimum turnover tax, initially announced as temporary, will probably remain in place for at least a few years," said Smedoiu, president of CFA Society Romania, quoted by Ziarul Financiar.

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