Romanian CFA analysts turn pessimistic in April

The Macroeconomic Confidence Index calculated by the CFA Society Romania plunged by 12.3 points to 47.1 points at the end of April – moving in the pessimistic half of the 0-100 scale split in two by the 50-point neutral benchmark.

The current economic conditions collapsed by a hard-to-justify 19.5 point step while the expectations deteriorated by 9 points to 42.6 points, according to CFA Society Romania.

At least this time, unlike the month before when the index also decreased (by 1.4 points), the deterioration in the CFA analysts' sentiment was in April in line with their weaker 2024 GDP projections: 1.9% on average in April from 2.7% in March.

The 0.8pp deterioration in the economic growth expectations is again hard to understand in the absence of relevant quarterly GDP releases or outstanding deterioration of the high-frequency series (retail, industry, constructions). A good question is where will the CFA index be at the end of May after the statistics office released a disappointing Q1 GDP advance on May 15.

The analysts revealed expectations for 5.7%-of-GDP public deficit this year (5.5%-of-GDP projected in March) and 55%-of-GDP public debt at the end of 2024 (53%-of-GDP in March). The consumer price inflation is predicted at 5.73% in April, 0.4pp more compared to the 5.33% in March.

The analysts surveyed by CFA Society Romania seem to be on a roller-coaster and not in the same one as the managers surveyed by BCR – Erste Group. Romania's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 51.5 in April from 49.3 in March, marking the index's first positive reading since the beginning of data collection in July 2023, Austria's Erste Group said on May 2.

"Both output and new orders components registered above 50 values this month and were the main drivers for the PMI evolution. All components except the suppliers' delivery times had a positive directional contribution in April," the report reads.

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