CFA Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence up in March, on downward long-term trend

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by CFA Romania rose marginally by 0.5 points in March 2019, compared to the previous month, to 34.9 points. But it lags a significant 12.7 points below the value in the same month of last year, reflecting the massive deterioration in analysts’ sentiment and expectations toward the end of last year and particularly after the Government passed the emergency ordinance 114/2018 (“greed tax emergency”). The amendments passed earlier this year slightly sweetened the initial provisions of the OUG 114, but political turmoil increased recently.

While the current conditions sub-index (47.1 points) indicates moderate confidence, the expectations are much worse (28.9 points). The “expectations” sub-index had the most significant impact on the improvement in the overall CFA Index, as it improved by 1.0 point versus the previous month, to 28.9 points, while still lagging by 10.5 points in annual terms. The “current conditions” sub-index, however, decreased by 0.4 points compared to the previous month, to 47.1 points, while remaining 17.1 points down versus the same month of last year.

The Macroeconomic Reliability Indicator quantifies the expectations of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) analysts in Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam. CFA Romania conducts its survey in the last week of the month, and the Indicator takes values ​​between 0 (lack of trust) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy).

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