Romania's CFA macroeconomic confidence index remains positive despite gloomy expectations

Romania's macroeconomic confidence index compiled by the CFA Society Romania based on a survey among its members carried out at the end of July edged down by 0.2 points to 52 points, remaining in the positive half of the 0-100 range.

The decline was the combined effect of a 1.3-point deterioration of the anticipation component of the indicator (to 45.6%), while the current conditions component improved by 2.2 points to a robust level of 64.7 points – not far from the average level over the past year and a half.

"The main risk to Romania's financial stability is the fiscal policy. The survey participants anticipate the budget deficit at a value of over 7% of GDP this year. This deficit is also associated with a slight reduction in economic growth expectations for this year," said Adrian Codirlaşu, Vice-President of the CFA Society Romania.

The analysts' expectations for the year's public budget have continued to deteriorate, indicating an average value of 7.1% of GDP (from 6.5% of GDP expected one month earlier).

Analysts' expectations for this year's economic growth also kept deteriorating, to 2.5% from 2.8% in the previous survey.

Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is expected to increase to 54% in the next 12 months.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (July 2025) decreased compared to the previous survey and stood at an average value of 4.43%.

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