CFA analysts improve their expectations for Romania's economy

The poll carried out among the members of the CFA Romania association in January indicates a certain improvement in the overall macroeconomic confidence as well as expectations for moderate inflation and local currency weakening over the 12-month forecast period. The analysts also expect the short-term interest rates to slightly increase, according to News.ro.

The poll also revealed that nearly two in three CFA analysts (62%) see the real estate prices as overvalued, according to Agerpres.

Thus, the macroeconomic confidence indicator of the CFA Romania association increased from the previous month by 2.2 points to 63.7 points in January. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the value of this indicator increased by 39.9 points.

The positive month-on-month evolution was due to the expectations component, which remains moderately optimistic, while the current conditions component has slightly deteriorated. The current conditions indicator fell from the previous month by 3.3 points, to 73.1 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, it increased by 33.8 points). The expectations indicator increased by 4.9 points to 59 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, it increased by 43 points).

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (February 2021 / February 2020) registered an average value of 4.04%.

On average, the CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of RON 4.8345 to EUR in six months and RON 4.8931 to EUR in twelve months.

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