Expectations of Romanian CFA analysts deteriorate in August

A poll conducted among Romanian CFA analysts in August showed their expectations related to the evolution of the local economy plummeting by 10.8 points from the month before, to a very weak score of 33.3 points.

The expectations component of the CFA Macroeconomic Confidence Index has remained below 50 points, since mid 2017, reflecting rather negative perspectives for the local economy.

The emergency ordinance 114/2018 at the end of last year pushed down the expectations sub-index below 20 points but the amendments passed since then supported more optimistic expectations.

Notably, CFA analysts still expect the local currency to strengthen in real terms against the euro over the next 12 months: while projecting 4.03% consumer price inflation over the next 12-month period, they also see the local currency weakening by only 1.7% versus the euro over the same period of time.

When it comes to the current conditions sub-index, the analysts admitted the situation improved to the best point since last autumn: 61.7 points, 5.3 points up from July, yet still 3.1 points down from the same month last year.

As a result of the two components, the CFA macroeconomic Confidence Index dropped by 5.5 points month-on-month to 42.8 points in August 2019.

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