Romania's CFA macroeconomic confidence index at 6 years maximum

The CFA Romania Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator has increased in May compared to the previous month to 70.7 points, the highest value in the last six years.

"Both the overall indicator and its two components [current state and expectations] have reached, for the second consecutive month, the maximum post-crisis values, which indicates strong confidence in the recovery of the economy this year," said Adrian Codirlaşu, vice president of the CFA Romania Association, Economica.net reported.

The poll reveals expectations for rising inflation and money market interest rates, consistent with a 25bp monetary policy rate hike, he also says.

The poll reflected average expectations for a 3.53% rise in consumer price inflation over the coming 12 months (May 2022 / May 2021). The analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.9470 RON to EUR within six months and 5.0062 RON to EUR within 12 months.

Most respondents (over 77%) anticipate that the economic impact of coronavirus will be felt even in 2022, and the largest share (42%) even by the fourth quarter of 2022.

This year, the GDP will rise by 5.1%, and the Government will not miss its 7%-of-GDP public deficit target, according to the poll.

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