CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index strengthens in May on higher expectations

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by CFA Romania grew by 4.9 points to 51.5 points in May 2019, compared to the previous month. Compared to the same month of last year, the indicator increased by as much as 10 points, News.ro reported.

The growth was driven by the better expectations expressed by the analysts, while the estimate of the current conditions improved at a much slower rate.

Thus, the indicator of current conditions decreased by 1.5 points to 58.4 points in May compared to the previous month, while it increased by 1.5 points compared to one year earlier. The sub-index of expectations rose by 8.2 points to 48.1 points in May, compared to April. Compared to the same month of the previous year (May 2018), the expectations indicator increased by 14.2 points.

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, which takes values​ between 0 (lack of trust) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy), was launched by CFA Romania and represents an indicator through which the association wishes to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a year.

Regarding the exchange rate, 77% of participants to the poll anticipate the local currency will weaken in the coming 12 months. Thus, the expectation for the 6-month horizon is that the exchange rate will reach RON 4.7911 to EUR 1, compared to RON 4.74 currently, while for the 12-month horizon the exchange rate forecast is RON 4.84 to EUR 1.

CFA analysts expect the consumer prices to increase by 4.1% over the coming 12 months.

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