Expectations of Romanian CFA analysts dragged down by war in Ukraine

Romania's macroeconomic confidence index compiled by the CFA Society Romania, based on the poll conducted among its members in February, has decreased by 5.5 points compared to January and by 10.5 points compared to February 2021 to 45.2 points. 100 points indicate full confidence and 50 points a neutral stance.

The sub-index that indicates analysts' expectations has plunged by 10 points to 41.1 points in February, compared to 71.4 points in August, Ziarul Financiar reported.

Amid the background of the war initiated by Russia in Ukraine, the macroeconomic confidence index has dropped significantly, the Society's vice-President Adrian Codirlasu explained.

The average expectations for this year's economic growth have plunged by nearly one percentage point compared to the previous poll carried out in January, to 3.5%.

The poll carried out among the CFA analysts in February also indicates average expectations for moderate budget consolidation to 6.2% of GDP this year from 6.7% last year.

The central bank is expected to further hike the monetary policy interest rates by 125 bp over the following 12 months (from 2.5% currently) in order to address the rising inflation envisaged at 7.28% over the same period.

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