Romania keeps monetary rate at 6.5% as it expects price shock

Romania’s central bank on August 8 announced it has maintained the monetary policy rate at 6.5% given the already higher-than-expected inflation in June, but particularly the expected price shock prompted by the electricity price in July, following the market liberalisation, and the VAT rate hike. Accordingly, the inflation will surge “markedly” in Q3, but will witness a steep downward correction in 2026 Q3, according to the revised inflation forecast to be unveiled on August 12.

Neither the policy decision nor the announced revision of the projected inflation trajectory came as a surprise.