BCR: Romania’s economy operates at 68% of pre-crisis potential

The pace of economic recovery in Romania has slowed in recent months, analysts of Romanian lender BCR said.

In September, the economic activity stood at 68% of the average in a normal pre-pandemic month, a slight improvement from 63% in August.

In April, at the climax of the health and economic crisis, the economy operated at only 27% of its capacity. BCR's analysts point out that they expect core inflation to remain high for longer, in the context of a persistent adverse supply-side shock and aggregate demand that has recovered faster than expected.

"According to the index developed by BCR that follows the developments in the economy daily, economic activity stood at 68% of the average of a normal pre-COVID month 19 in September, a slight improvement from 63% in August. The peak of the crisis was reached in April when the economy operated at only 27% of capacity, then suddenly recovered in the next three months, amid the gradual relaxation of restrictions on social distancing and free movement, reaching at a level of 60% in July. Even if the evolution of household demand shows a reversal of the contraction trend, the complete recovery on the supply side of goods and services may take a little longer," reads BCR's report, quoted by Bursa.

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