Romanian manufacturing managers show signs of stabilisation

The BCR Romania Manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion territory for the first time in just over two years, reaching 50.1 in July vs 48.8 in June, according to the research note published by Erste Group. The expected drive from external demand is not yet visible, while the effects of high energy costs and the sluggish automobile industry are visible, and the longer-term effects of the investments in the defence area are going to be uneven across Europe.

The stabilisation of the manufacturing output at the level reached in May (latest available data) would, however, imply a 3.3% contraction for the entire year – after 1.1%-1.2% annual contraction rates in 2024-2025 and a steeper 2.5% y/y contraction in 2023.