Banca Transilvania expects Romanian households to keep high savings rate

The savings rate will be at a high level among Romanian households in the following quarters, against the background of the fiscal-budgetary consolidation expected on the short term and the development of the capital market in the medium term, according to Andrei Radulescu, chief economist of Banca Transilvania - the country’s biggest lender.

The savings rate among the Romanian households increased in the first nine months of 2019 by a percentage point compared to the similar period of 2018, to 14.8% of the revenues, a value that is higher than the average in the Eurozone (about 13%), according to Ziarul Financiar.

The pattern is seen in the dynamics of the stock of deposits/loans held/taken by the households from banks: while the deposits increased by 11% year-on-year as of the end of November, the stock of loans rose by 7.5% year-on year and the households’ net positive balance with the banks increased by 18.5% year-on-year to RON 74.6 billion (EUR 15.5 bln) at the end of November, according to data from Romania’s National Bank (BNR). However, the overall data is an aggregation of the net borrower and lender households that, BTR analyst points out, may increasingly diverge.

"We underline the fact that the savings rate at the population level is higher than the one registered at the time of the Great Recession [2008-2009], but we draw attention to the phenomenon of [income hence saving] polarization," said Andrei Rădulescu, director of Macroeconomic Analysis at Banca Transilvania, quoted by ZF.

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