Analysts welcome Romania’s GDP growth in Q3, but remain divided over full-year result

While the analysts were pleasantly surprised by the Q3 GDP reading published by the statistics office INS on November 14 (flash estimate), the statistics office’s confusing format of the GDP data release and lack of economic interpretation, along with the strictly accounting data, led to diverging interpretations and subsequently very diverse projections for the full-year result. INS reported Romania’s GDP (chain-linked quarterly series) increased by 1.2% in gross, not-adjusted terms, but decreased by 0.2% q/q in the seasonally and workday adjusted terms.

While Erste Group maintains its 1.3% projection, ING Romania maintains its 0.3% forecast that looks highly pessimistic unless a major economic collapse (-4% q/q economic contraction) takes place in the last quarter of the year – or a radical backward revision is operated by the statistics office.