Analysts expect Romania's central bank to operate 50bp rate hike on January 10

Analysts surveyed by Economica.net reveal expectations for an interest rate hike at the monetary board of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), possibly of 50 bp to 2.25%, perhaps accompanied by further widening of the interest rate corridor that would push up further the Lombard interest rate.

"We expect the National Bank of Romania to increase the key interest rate from 1.75% to 2.25%. We also anticipate the widening of the corridor formed by the interest rates of permanent facilities around the monetary policy interest rate to +/- 1.00 pp, from +/- 0.75 pp now," said Valentin Tătaru, chief economist of ING Bank.

Adrian Codârlaşu, vice president of CFA Romania Association, believes that Poland hiking the rate by 50 bp this week to 2.25% sets grounds for an increase in Romania's monetary policy interest rate by 0.5% as well, compared to the initial expectations for 0.25 bp hike expressed by the Association. He also warned that the headline inflation might hit 10% YoY in May-June, judging from the factory-gate inflation of 32% (in November) recently announced.

Ionut Dumitru, Raiffeisen Bank's chief economist, points out that Raiffeisen Bank's forecast envisages a policy interest rate of up to 2.5% by mid-2022 and 3% by the end of 2022.

"We expect the BNR to catch up with colleagues in Central and Eastern Europe and offer a key rate hike of 50 bp to 2.25% at the next January 10 interest rate meeting. The excess liquidity after high public spending at the end of the year should support such a decision. The BNR should remain a net debtor to the banking system for the next two months," he explained.

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