Romanian bank analysts see "moderate to high" risk of recession

More than 85% of the members of the financial analysts' association AAFBR expressed expectations for an average inflation rate higher than 8% in 2022 and a "moderate to high risk of stagflation."

More precisely, 38% of the polled members of the AAFBR expressed expectations for 0%-2% GDP growth this year, while 8% of those polled expressed expectations for a negative growth rate, News.ro reported.

The monetary policy rate is expected to rise to 4%, a view supported by almost half of the survey participants, and even to 5%, a view supported by about a third of participants.

Inflation reached 10.2% in March 2022, the highest level since 2004. Also, the trend of the RON to EUR exchange rate is shifting toward a weaker local currency.

"Under these conditions, economic growth is expected to slow significantly this year, reaching 0-2% in the view of 38% of respondents or even a recession in the perspective of 7% of respondents," said Daniela Ropota, president of AAFBR.

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