Poll shows Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan winning presidential elections in Romania

The isolationist far-right candidate, be it George Simion or Anamaria Gavrila, would win the first round of the presidential elections – but not at a wide margin, and either of them would lose in the second round against Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, according to a poll carried out by AtlasIntel for Hotnews.ro between March 13-15.

The poll indicates a significant and united segment of around 30% of the electorate, which would vote for any providential candidate – be it the far-right party leader George Simion, the opportunistic Calin Georgescu enjoying support from both Russia and unreformed local intelligence services, or unknown politician (until recently) Anamaria Gavrila. The 10pp top-up for Georgescu (rates at 40% in previous polls) can be attributed to his TikTok activity, reportedly supported by an army of bots with Russian e-mail addresses, or his wife, Cristela.

Apart from this, the poll also indicated a surprisingly reasonable outcome: Nicusor Dan as the most appropriate next president and Traian Basescu as the best president of the country. Reformist presidential candidate Elena Lasconi would not meet the 5% threshold, and Klaus Iohannis ranks as the least preferred president.

The most credible politician, acting president Ilie Bolojan, could take over as prime minister if Nicusor Dan wins the next presidential election, which is still premature to conclude given the high political volatility.

The poll indicates a 5pp advantage held in the first round by George Simion or Anamaria Gavrila against Nicusor Dan (25%), while the ruling coalition's candidate, Crin Antonescu, is rated at only 18%. Other relevant candidates are Victor Ponta, with around 9% electoral support, and Elena Lasconi (3.9%).

In the second round, Nicusor Dan would win against both George Simion (42.1% versus 35.3%) and Anamaria Gavrila (40.1% versus 31.7%). The spread is wider in the case of Crin Antonescu, whom Dan would defeat at a spread of more than 10pp: 45.2% versus 35.1%.

Acting president Bolojan is the most trusted politician.

The poll also shows acting president Ilie Bolojan as the most trusted politician, with 53% of those polled expressing a positive view versus 38% having a negative view. Bolojan is also the only one of the 11 politicians with a positive balance of favorable opinions.

The second most trusted politician is Nicusor Dan (40% versus 48%).