Politico: Romania’s Klaus Iohannis and Croatia’s Andrej Plenković could replace European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen

The current European Commission president is running for a second term at the helm of the Union’s executive, but EU diplomats and politicians have been speculating on who could replace her. Politico Europe gathered the names being thrown around in Brussels and ranked their chances. Romanian president Klaus Iohannis is ranked as having the biggest chance to take her spot.

All candidates belong to the center-right European People’s Party, which is most likely going to retain the position of the largest family in the European Parliament after the upcoming European elections.

Given a 3-out-of-5 shot to replace von der Leyen, Romanian president Klaus Iohannis has a few arguments in his favor. According to Politico, he is “seen as a steady hand and is a darling of European leaders, particularly among conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have showered him with praise for keeping his country anchored in the pro-Western and pro-European camp after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — which can’t be said of Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria.”

Unlike Poland, Romania refrained from imposing restrictions on Ukrainian grain. As such, many see Iohannis as a pro-European team player. He is also coming from Eastern Europe, a region which has long been skipped at the helm of the Union.

“With his second term ending in December, Iohannis is looking for a top international job. Last month he agreed to run as NATO’s next leader — but that will be an uphill battle, given the widespread backing for Dutch PM Mark Rutte,” Politico argues. The same attempt is likely to backfire, as it “annoyed some Western European countries.”

The other Eastern European with real chances at replacing von der Leyen is Croatian PM Andrej Plenković. Also part of the center-right EPP as Iohannis and von der Leyen, Plenković’s appointment as Commission head would also send a positive signal to aspiring EU members, seeing as his country is the newest entry.

“Plenković’s surprise announcement that he will lead the MEP candidates list of Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has some suspecting he wants to abandon domestic politics. His experience as prime minister since 2016 has certainly provided him with authority and networking opportunities with his fellow European leaders,” Politico highlights.

Plenković has dismissed rumors he could replace von der Leyen, “which, of course, could be seen as a good indication he’s interested in the job,” the magazine says.

Italy’s Mario Draghi, European Parliament head Roberta Metsola, ECB president Christine Lagarde, and internal market commissioner Thierry Breton are also on the list of possible von der Leyen replacements, but below Iohannis and Plenković.