CFA Romania: current situation is adverse and expectations for improvement remain weak

Based on data collected during the last week of the month, the figures cannot reflect the vote on PNL prime ministerial candidate Siegfried Mureșan or the appointment of a new government.

With the current conditions sub-index at 38 points and the expectations sub-index still in the contractionary territory at 45.4 points, the outlook for further developments remains negative.

Compared with two years earlier, in September 2024, before the parliamentary and presidential elections that triggered the country’s prolonged political crisis, the overall CFA macroeconomic confidence index was not much different. The main difference was that the current conditions sub-index was then in expansionary territory, above 60 points, while expectations were deeply pessimistic, at around 30 points.

Those expectations materialised: current conditions have since deteriorated to below 40 points, a weaker reading even than the expectations sub-index, which remains below the neutral 50-point threshold.