Real appreciation of Romanian leu inflates nominal GDP and fuels external deficits

Romania’s nominal GDP has reached EUR 354 billion in 2024 and EUR 358 billion in the four quarters to March 2025, nearly tripling from EUR 125 billion in 2009. While often cited as evidence of rapid economic expansion, this 182% increase over 15 years significantly overstates the country’s real economic progress, according to our calculations.

The headline figure, consistent with an average nominal growth of 7.2% per year, is heavily influenced by external factors—most notably eurozone inflation and the real appreciation of the Romanian leu. According to calculations based on GDP deflators, euro area prices rose by 35.5% over the 15-year period, while the leu strengthened by a cumulative 41.5% in real terms against the euro.