Romanian authorities expect no downgrade after consultations with S&P

S&P experts arrived in Bucharest on September 24 and are expected to issue their review of Romania’s ratings on October 2. The absence of a fully empowered government, however, limits visibility over the country’s 2027 budget trajectory and medium-term fiscal policy.

“Essentially, it's about the fact that the macroeconomic data does not justify a downgrade of the sovereign rating. Even if we have a political crisis,” Daniel Dăianu, president of Romania’s Fiscal Council, told TVR Info, according to Profit.ro.

Dăianu said the next government would need to avoid measures that could weaken this year’s fiscal position, including a budget revision that raises the deficit or reverses recently adopted fiscal measures.

He also said Romania’s fiscal problems remained significant as the deficit was still around 6% of GDP, describing the gap as large in absolute terms.

Ionuț Dumitru, economic adviser to interim prime minister Ilie Bolojan, said Romania had completed more than half of the fiscal adjustment considered necessary to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP in the coming years.

“What matters most or has a very large weight is the budgetary situation. With the correction measures taken last year and this year, the deficit drops to 6%. Of course, we still have a long way to go before reaching a deficit of under 3% of GDP in the coming years, but more than half of the necessary correction has already been made,” Dumitru said, according to Hotnews.ro.

He said the three major rating agencies had recognised the fiscal measures and deficit reduction achieved so far, but were seeking greater clarity on the path for 2027 and 2028, particularly given Romania’s political uncertainty and upcoming elections.

The S&P review follows Romania’s January-August budget deficit falling by 31% year-on-year to 2.9% of projected GDP, while the government’s full-year target remains 6.2% of GDP.