UniCredit says Romania's rating downgrade averted, but yield compression needs more reforms

The adjustment generated by the fiscal corrective package drafted by the Romanian government could be sufficient to avoid a credit rating downgrade and maintain the country's access to EU funds, which could support a stabilization of the EUR-RON exchange rate in the range of 5.05–5.10 in the second half of 2025, according to a research report of UniCredit financial group quoted by Cursdeguvernare.ro.

However, Romania's credit risk premium remains high compared to other countries with the same rating, and investors will closely monitor implementation risks, as social unrest and the sharp decline in the popularity of the ruling parties could intensify tensions within the coalition, the report reads.