Romania keeps policy rate at 6.5% as inflation expected to considerably pick up

The annual inflation rate will pick up considerably in the following months, under the transitory impact of the expiry of the electricity price capping scheme and the increase in VAT rates and excise duties starting August 1, thus climbing well above the values indicated by the May 2025 forecast over the short time horizon, the National Bank of Romania (BNR) argues in its July 8 decision on keeping the monetary policy interest rate at 6.5%.

The move comes at a time of economic stagnation and rising risks of recession.