Romania’s GDP increases by 5% in Q1, above analysts’ expectations

Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, in gross series, according to the flash estimate published by the National Statistics Institute (INS) on Wednesday, May 15. Based on seasonally adjusted data, the growth was of 5.1%.

When compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, the GDP rose by 1.3% in January-March this year, the same data shows.

The INS flash data published on Wednesday don’t disclose the main drivers of the GDP growth, which will be made available at the beginning of June.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg, and quoted by local Profit.ro, estimated an economic growth of 4.1% in the first quarter of 2019, similar to the last quarter of 2018. Meanwhile, analysts interviewed by Reuters were even more pessimistic, expecting the growth of the Romanian economy to slow down to 3.9% in the first quarter.

The Romanian government expects the GDP to grow by 5.5% this year but international financial institutions believe the increase will be smaller. For example, the International Monetary Fund - IMF expects a GDP growth of 3.1% this year while the European Commission estimates a 3.3% growth.

Romania recorded a 4.1% economic growth in 2018, down from almost 7% in 2017.

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