Marginal correction to Romania’s outstanding GDP growth in Q1: +6.4% YoY

Romania’s GDP increased in Q1 by 6.4% compared to the same period last year (YoY) and by 5.1% compared to Q4 last year (QoQ, in seasonally adjusted terms), the statistics office INS announced.

This is a marginal 0.1pp downward correction for both the annual growth and the quarterly advance compared to the first estimate announced on June 8. The bright figures, which took analysts by surprise, were announced as flash estimates on May 17.

Despite the small revision to the overall GDP figures, some of the elements have been revised rather significantly. Thus, the value-added generated by the sector of services to households (including wholesale and retail trade) has increased by only 9.2% YoY compared to 12.2% YoY estimated on June 8 - while the prices for the same category rose by 8.3% YoY compared to 3.2% initially estimated (pretty harsh revision).

In fact, the analysts were puzzled in June about the price dynamics announced by INS. The puzzling 9.4% drop in the price of the IT services, according to the initial estimate, was replaced with a 0.9% increase (while the increase in volume terms was maintained at over 23% YoY).

On the utilisation side, the “collective final consumption expenditure of general government” contracted by 4.4% YoY compared to a 7.9% YoY advance estimated initially.

(Photo source: Dreamstime.com)