Construction works in Romania down 7.1% y/y in Q1 dragged down by residential

The construction works index in Romania contracted by 7.1% y/y, dragged down by the unexpectedly sharp 34.1% y/y plunge in the residential buildings segment, according to data published by the statistics office INS. However, the data show significant anomalies.

Although the residential segment is reported as not performing recently (particularly since the beginning of 2023), as well as it did in past years, due to a combination of high interest rates and high economic uncertainty, the 34.1% plunge reported by the statistics office needs further confirmation. On June 12, the INS will publish the number of housing units delivered, and this may indicate whether the work volume data indeed reflects actual developments or a failure of the reporting mechanism.

The works in the non-residential buildings segment contracted by 1.6% y/y, while the volume of engineering work increased by 6.6% y/y in Q1, according to the statistics office.

The seasonally (and workday) adjusted data show an even steeper, 21.0% y/y plunge of the overall construction works index – although mathematically impossible, as none of the three main segments contracted by more than 20% y/y, according to the statistics office. This may show failures in the compilation of the reported data.

The works on residential buildings, non-residential buildings, and civil engineering projects contracted by 19.6%, 4.6% y/y, and 16.6%, respectively, according to the statistics office. On average – by 21.0% y/y.

(Photo source: Jat306/Dreamstime.com)