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Citigroup analysts expect robust fiscal consolidation and ruling coalition stability in Romania this year
According to notes published after visiting Romania, Citigroup analysts believe that the country’s budget deficit could even fall below the 6% of GDP this year, with only the measures already adopted for 2026 (expenditure cuts and revenue…
iulian ernst · Journalist
· Updated · 2 min read
According to notes published after visiting Romania, Citigroup analysts believe that the country’s budget deficit could even fall below the 6% of GDP this year, with only the measures already adopted for 2026 (expenditure cuts and revenue increases).
- Public deficit potentially below 6% of GDP this year from 7.7% (8.0% under ESA) in 2025
- CA deficit down to 7% of GDP, down from 7.8% in 2025, driven by thinner imports following shrinking demand
- Headline inflation eases to 3.7% y/y at year-end (upside tilted risks)
- Ruling coalition stays united in the absence of alternatives, incentives (PSD), and resilience (on the side of PM Bolojan)
- The exchange rate is seen as “broadly stable,” despite REER being a concern (not seen as a threat to exports, though)
