Romania’s potential GDP growth weakens to 2%, but can increase in coming years

A strong investment cycle is preventing a sharper decline and could lift potential growth to 2.4%–2.7% by 2027–2029, according to an analysis by ING Bank signed by Tataru and cited by Ziarul Financiar.

In his view, Romania’s next challenge will be less the volume of investment and more how productively the new assets are used.

New roads, railways, energy infrastructure and digital networks directly increase the capital stock. They can also boost productivity by reducing transport costs, expanding labour markets, improving access to energy and reducing administrative frictions. These benefits materialise with a lag, meaning that potential growth can improve even amid short-term economic difficulties.

“We believe that the convergence process is not over, but the easy gains have disappeared,” Tataru said, commenting on Romania’s convergence path as an EU member state.

Romania has spent much of the past two decades catching up with Western Europe at a remarkable pace. GDP per capita, measured in purchasing power parity, increased from around 44% of the EU average at the time of accession in 2007 to 78% in 2025.

Labour productivity increased rapidly, foreign capital brought technology and know-how, workers shifted towards more productive activities, and EU integration generated a substantial dividend from investment.