The retail sales volume index contracted by 5.4% y/y in Romania in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, despite a certain improvement in the non-retail segment offset by further deterioration in the food segment, which indicates a tougher impact of budgetary measures on low-income households.

While annual growth figures will improve in H2 on base effects, the fundamentals for gradual recovery in private consumption after the correction generated by the budgetary measures enforced during 2025 remain fragile.

The lower wages, some 6.6% down y/y in Q2 (June readings not released yet), contributed significantly to the weaker sales performance. Relative improvement is expected in H2 in this regard, but only in annual terms, while genuine improvement reflected by quarterly growth in incomes and retail sales remains uncertain.

In seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales kept declining for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q2, by 0.9% q/q, data from the National Statistics Office show.

Food sales contracted by 2.0% q/q, reversing the slight improvement (+0.5% qq) in Q1, while non-food sales increased by 1.6% q/q along with a visible upward trend seen since January. There is a wide discrepancy in the dynamics of the food sales, which are already below the 2023 benchmark, and the non-food sales that remain significantly above the average 2023 levels.

While the food sales were, in June, less than  2% above the 2021 average, the non-food sales were over 20% stronger, witnessing superior purchasing power of higher-income households with a higher concentration of discretionary purchases.

The sales of fuels contracted by 2.0% q/q in Q2, on the combined effect of fragile household income and high diesel and petrol prices. In June, the seasonally-adjusted fuel sales were 7.7% above the 2021 average.

In annual terms, the food sales were 5.6% y/y lower in Q2, with the non-food sales and the sales of fuel dropping by 5.2% y/y each.

(Photo: Designer491/ Dreamstime)

iulian@romania-insider.com