Trade risk assessment company Coface places Romania’s economic increase at maximum 1 percent this year, in a basic scenario. Coface also keeps the country’s rating at B, among the lowest in central Europe. The GDP increase estimation is below Romania’s target of 1.6 percent, which was recently lowered form 1.8 percent.
“We don’t exclude an economic increase above 1 percent for 2013, if we see a speedier entry of European funds and a better than expected contribution of the agricultural production, meaning a year-on-year increase of 20 percent. Flat exports and industrial production, together with a shy evolution of internal demand paint the picture of an economy which will evolve below its real potential in the next two years,” said Constantin Coman, country manager Coface România.
Coface’s estimation for 2012 GDP increase is of 0.5 percent maximum. This year’s estimate for trade deficit is placed at 6 percent of the GDP, and Coface warns about the higher concentration level of investments from the eurozone and the financing sources, which raise questions on the balance of payments.
The country rating – B – indicates an unstable economic environment, capable of affecting an already weak history of payments, according to Coface.
(photo source: sxc.hu)