Raiffeisen Bank Romania revised its forecast in the sense of expecting the country's central bank BNR to increase the refinancing rate rather sooner than later - namely by 0.25 pp at the monetary policy interest rate at the central bank meeting in November.

Until now, Raiffeisen Bank expected an interest rate increase only in March 2022.

"In the context in which the key interest rate of the Hungarian central bank, 1.50%, is already higher than the key interest rate of Romania, of 1.25%, and the central bank of Poland will most likely increase the monetary policy interest rate in the month October, I expect that in November we will see a first step of the NBR for the increase of the key interest rate by 0.25% in the first phase," says Ionuţ Dumitru, the chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank, quoted by Economica.net.

According to Raiffeisen Bank forecasts, the average annual inflation in August will be 5% YoY. ING Bank expects the average annual inflation rate in August at 5.1%.

The National Bank of Romania increased its year-end inflation forecast to 5.6%, under the last inflation report.

The next meeting of the NBR Board will take place on October 5, 2021, followed by the last meeting of the year, on November 9, 2021.

(Photo: Octav Ganea/ Inquam Photos)

andrei@romania-insider.com